Since this year, lithium carbonate has become an uncertain factor affecting the development of new energy vehicle industry. The effect of the continuous high price of lithium carbonate continues to be transmitted to the downstream of the industrial chain, bringing great pressure to power battery and new energy vehicle enterprises. What causes lithium prices to continue to rise? How can new energy vehicles resolve the "difficulty of raw materials"?
On December 17, 2021, in the general assembly workshop of an Automobile Co., Ltd. in a new energy automobile town in Jinhua City, Zhejiang Province, employees were orderly submitting cars to the offline. Issued by Xinhua News Agency (photographed by Hu Xiaofei)
On March 17, Nezha automobile released the explanation of model price adjustment. Affected by many factors such as the rise in the price of upstream raw materials and the shortage of supply chain supply, Nezha automobile raised the price of models in sales from 0:00 on the 18th. Chery new energy, Xiaopeng automobile and other auto enterprises have also raised prices recently. This round of price adjustment of automobile enterprises is closely related to the higher prices of raw materials such as lithium carbonate.
Why does the fluctuation of lithium carbonate price bring such a large conduction effect?
As the core component of new energy vehicles, the development of power batteries is highly dependent on resources. The key materials used include lithium, nickel, cobalt and other metals. Among them, lithium accounts for nearly half of the production cost of cathode materials. Public market data show that in 2021, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise from 68000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to about 500000 yuan / ton today.
"At present, the production of a new energy vehicle in the market uses about 50kg lithium carbonate. Although the actual transaction price of lithium carbonate may not reach the maximum market price due to the manufacturer's preparation in advance, the cost premium is also considerable." Wu Yanhua, Secretary General of lithium branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said.
"The rise in lithium prices has significantly increased the production cost of power batteries." Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that in the past 10 years, through technical improvement, the cost of lithium battery has decreased by more than 80%. Nowadays, the rapid rise in the cost of raw materials has diluted the capital and efforts invested by the industrial chain in technology cost reduction.
Industry insiders believe that the high price of lithium is mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand.
In 2021, China's new energy vehicle industry developed rapidly, with production and sales of more than 3.5 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. Since the beginning of 2022, the momentum of rapid development has continued.
"The exceeding expectation of the new energy vehicle market will inevitably push up the demand for upstream materials and bring about a shortage of supply in the short term." Du Shuo, managing director of SDIC Innovation Investment Management Co., Ltd., told reporters.
"In 2016 and 2017, lithium prices also showed a rising cycle, which was due to the increase in demand caused by subsidies for new energy vehicles." Wu Yanhua said that whether it is lithium salt or upstream minerals, the construction and expansion of resources need a certain period of time, and the new production capacity is difficult to release in the short term, which has caused price fluctuations.
A corner of the new energy battery testing workshop of Fujian Xingyun Electronics Co., Ltd. (photographed on August 26, 2021). Photographed by Xinhua News Agency Reporter Lin Shan
Insiders also believe that there is no need to be too nervous about the high price of lithium. On the one hand, the market mechanism itself will realize the role of adjustment. On the other hand, relevant departments are also accelerating the connection between upstream and downstream supply and demand of the industrial chain and market supply guarantee. "We expect that from the second half of 2022, the production capacity that can be released successively will be considerable. Under the condition that the development of new energy vehicle industry remains at a stable growth rate, the upstream supply can be guaranteed." Wu Yanhua said.
Recently, the Ministry of industry and information technology held a symposium on the operation of lithium industry, listened to the production, expansion and sales of key enterprises, and required upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to strengthen docking, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price, and better support the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as new energy vehicles in China.
Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that focusing on meeting the production needs of power batteries, moderately accelerate the development progress of domestic lithium resources, and crack down on unfair competition such as hoarding and raising prices.
It is worth noting that China has accelerated the improvement of the power battery recycling system. According to the data of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the pilot of power battery recycling has been carried out in 17 regions and China iron tower companies. By the end of December 2021, 173 relevant enterprises had set up 10127 recycling service outlets nationwide. The continuous improvement of technology and mechanism for power battery recycling and treatment to form cathode materials will help release more lithium carbonate capacity and promote the return of prices to normal.
"According to incomplete statistics, in 2020, the lithium carbonate formed by recycled power batteries on the market was about 10000 tons, and in 2021, this figure increased to 30000 tons." Wu Yanhua said that with the strengthening of power battery life cycle traceability management and the continuous improvement and standardization of recycling system, the level of resource recycling and efficient utilization will continue to improve. These will become a good supplement to the supply of lithium carbonate in the domestic market.
